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Soldiers walk amid destroyed Russian tanks in Bucha, near Kyiv, Ukraine, Sunday, April 3, 2022. (Source: Rodrigo Abd)

 

Recap: What is the current situation of the Russo-Ukrainian War?

  • The Russo-Ukrainian War continues the 2014 annexation of the Crimean Peninsula in Ukraine and other more minor wars such as the War in Donbas.

  • Abridged chronological events after the start of the war on February 24th, 2022:

    • February 27th: Kyiv is almost captured, and the world’s largest plane, the AN-225, is destroyed on

    • March 2nd: Kharkiv is nearly captured by the Russians as Southeastern Ukraine is overrun along the Dnieper River

    • April 1~April 4th: Ukrainian forces and the Foreign Legion recapture all lost territory in Northern Ukraine

    • May 14th: Russian forces are repelled from Kharkiv

       

  • But most importantly, there are many new cases of rape, murder, and numerous massacres allegedly and found to be committed by the Russian military, raising concerns about war crimes.

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Situational Awareness: Although there is a monumental amount of evidence supporting the claim that Russia is committing acts against many laws of war, such as the Geneva Convention, there isn’t much the Western world can do without actively intervening in the war.

  • Usually, when an armed combatant of a nation’s military attacks a civilian, they are tried by the International Criminal Court (ICC). If the country is an ICC signatory, the ICC can conduct investigations if the government is unwilling to investigate the war crimes committed by its soldiers themselves.

  • Unfortunately, Russia has withdrawn from the statute and has told the ICC that it will not withdraw from the war. This means that the ICC has little investigative power over Russian soldiers, even if they commit war crimes.

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The Result: The UN and allies cannot do anything against the Russian Federation and are generally ineffective at stopping the many atrocities committed against the people of Ukraine. This, added to President Putin’s threats of nuclear war, has largely negated what could have been done to minimize civilian casualties in the war. Barring full entry of Western nations into the conflict, it is the grim reality that such acts against humanity will likely continue.

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The Balance: The war has now become a war of attrition, where both sides are trying to outlast each other.

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  • Russia has the benefit of having a much larger military and combat experience, but they are constrained by using fresh conscripts and employing their equipment in poor ways.

  • Ukraine currently has full backing from the Western world in terms of monetary and military equipment aid.​

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